As the United States faces a shifting immigration landscape, an estimated 11 million individuals currently living in the country with temporary permits are expected to see them expire within the next four years under Donald Trump’s presidency. Additionally, approximately 8.3 million undocumented workers contribute to the U.S. economy. Despite laws prohibiting companies from hiring undocumented workers, many businesses continue to do so, taking advantage of the lower wages these workers accept compared to their American counterparts.
President Trump has pledged to deport millions of undocumented individuals, even preparing Guantanamo Bay to house over 30,000 “criminal illegal aliens.” This large-scale deportation effort is expected to have significant consequences on the American economy. The abrupt removal of millions of workers, particularly in agriculture, construction, and hospitality, could disrupt key industries, leading to inflation and slower economic growth.
As of 2017, 66% of undocumented immigrants had lived in the U.S. for more than a decade, and around 4.4 million U.S.-born children had at least one undocumented guardian. Many undocumented immigrants take on low-paying, dangerous, and less desirable jobs at a higher rate than both U.S.-born workers and authorized immigrant workers. Removing these laborers also impacts American-born workers. For example, a construction company cutting costs may eliminate construction site managers before reducing its workforce of carpenters. Similarly, restaurants will always require cooks but may reduce managerial positions first.
Beyond the labor market, mass deportations would also affect tax revenues and the fiscal health of federal, state, and local governments. According to a study by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, in a given year, each foreign-born individual and their dependents contribute an average of $1,300 more in federal taxes than they receive in benefits, resulting in a net gain for the economy. Over a lifetime, an immigrant pays approximately $237,000 more in taxes than they receive in benefits.
Despite these economic contributions, the influx of new residents does not necessarily lead to wage increases for existing workers. Furthermore, the most significant economic benefits from immigration come from highly educated individuals. Boston University professor Terek Hassan suggests reconsidering the balance between family-based and skill-based migration policies to maximize economic benefits.
However, many Americans remain concerned about the financial impact of undocumented immigrants, particularly the remittances sent abroad, which some view as draining money from the U.S. economy. This concern has fueled support for Trump’s immigration policies, highlighting the ongoing debate over the role of undocumented workers in the nation’s economic future.
Sources:
https://cmsny.org/importance-of-immigrant-labor-to-us-economy/#:~:text=According%20to%20estimates%20from%20the,5.2%20percent%20of%20the%20workforce.
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